Getting to 2050: Canada's Transition to a Low-emission Future

Advice for Long-term Reductions of Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutants

Reducing our own GHG emissions means that Canada is facing a transition to a low emissions society — a transition that will be driven by environmental, economic and social factors. We have a substantial national interest in understanding and anticipating the nature and scope of that change and in proactively seeking to manage our response, with respect to both mitigation and adaptation measures, in a way that benefits Canada. This Advisory Report addresses the issue of how to mitigate potential effects of climate change, through deep emission reductions.

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Getting to 2050: Canada's Transition to a Low-emission Future
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Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose
1.1.1 Clean Air Act Reference and NRTEE’s Advice
1.1.2 Federal Regulatory Framework and NRTEE’s Reference
1.1.3 Conceptual Framework
1.2 Important Context and Assumptions of the NRTEE’s Greenhouse Gas Advice
1.3 Transition to 2050

2 Managing the Transition to a Low-emission Future
2.1 Enabling Conditions for Managing the Transition
2.1.1 A Note on Our Modelling, Assumptions and Caveats
2.1.2 Canada Acting in Concert with the World
2.1.3 Policy Certainty Beyond the Short Term is Central
2.1.4 An Economy-wide Emission Price with Complementary Policies
2.1.5 Technology Deployment Will Be Imperative
2.1.6 Air Pollutant Reductions and an Integrated Approach
2.2 Understanding the Economic Risk and Uncertainties of the Transition
2.2.1 Long-term National Economic Growth Prospects
2.2.2 Regional and Sectoral Outcomes
2.2.3 The Importance of the Enabling Conditions

3 Key Findings and Recommendations

4 Looking Ahead

5 Appendix
5.1 Letter of Reference from the Minister of Environment
5.2 NRTEE Approach to the Reference
5.3 Glossary
5.4 Research Commissioned by the NRTEE in Support of the Reference
5.5 Key Attributes of the Energy Economy Model – CIMS
5.6 Messages from Regional Meetings Across Canada
5.7 Meeting Participants – NRTEE’s Research on
Clean Air and Climate Change - 2007