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1.2 Important Context and Assumptions of the NRTEE's Greenhouse Gas Advice

Getting to 2050: Canada's Transition to a Low-emission Future — Advice for Long-term Reductions of Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutants

The NRTEE understands and acknowledges that the development of Canada's long-term policy response to climate change will not proceed in a vacuum. A number of key considerations – both domestic and international – will influence our national approach. These considerations form the basis for assumptions that the NRTEE views as either existing or necessary to understand how Canada can and should develop policies to achieve deep long-term GHG emission reductions.

We believe it is important to be explicit about what our key assumptions have been throughout our work, because these have an impact on both the scope and nature of our analysis and recommendations. We view the following assumptions as either current (as they arise from current government policy or commitment) or necessary (as they are explicit in our analysis and therefore necessary to framing our recommendations).

Assumption #1: Climate stabilization is the objective

Canada, like every other country in the world, needs to place its domestic efforts on climate change in an international context. Therefore, the overall objective of Canada's climate change policy framework needs to be calibrated to a global objective. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sets as a global objective "to achieve the stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system." The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has laid out a number of scenarios linking global average temperature increases to atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Although the NRTEE has stated in the past that a 2°C global average increase would constitute a "dangerous" level of climate change for Canada [5](since a global average increase would translate into higher average temperature increases for Canada, given its northern location), we are not in a position to offer advice on the atmospheric concentration objective to which Canada should be committing. However, what is clear to the NRTEE is that Canada – as a signatory and ratifier – is committed to the overall objective of the UNFCCC, and so is committed to contributing to climate stabilization as part of global efforts on this issue.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose
1.1.1 Clean Air Act Reference and NRTEE’s Advice
1.1.2 Federal Regulatory Framework and NRTEE’s Reference
1.1.3 Conceptual Framework
1.2 Important Context and Assumptions of the NRTEE’s Greenhouse Gas Advice
1.3 Transition to 2050

2 Managing the Transition to a Low-emission Future
2.1 Enabling Conditions for Managing the Transition
2.1.1 A Note on Our Modelling, Assumptions and Caveats
2.1.2 Canada Acting in Concert with the World
2.1.3 Policy Certainty Beyond the Short Term is Central
2.1.4 An Economy-wide Emission Price with Complementary Policies
2.1.5 Technology Deployment Will Be Imperative
2.1.6 Air Pollutant Reductions and an Integrated Approach
2.2 Understanding the Economic Risk and Uncertainties of the Transition
2.2.1 Long-term National Economic Growth Prospects
2.2.2 Regional and Sectoral Outcomes
2.2.3 The Importance of the Enabling Conditions

3 Key Findings and Recommendations

4 Looking Ahead

5 Appendix
5.1 Letter of Reference from the Minister of Environment
5.2 NRTEE Approach to the Reference
5.3 Glossary
5.4 Research Commissioned by the NRTEE in Support of the Reference
5.5 Key Attributes of the Energy Economy Model – CIMS
5.6 Messages from Regional Meetings Across Canada
5.7 Meeting Participants – NRTEE’s Research on
Clean Air and Climate Change - 2007

Assumption #2: Medium- and long-term goals have been defined

The Government of Canada, through its 2007 Turning the Corner plan and associated regulatory framework, has defined medium- and long-term GHG emission reduction targets for the country. To reiterate, the current commitment is a 20% reduction in GHG emissions (relative to 2006 levels) by 2020, and a 60% to 70% reduction (relative to 2006) by 2050. This is the first time a federal government has set forth such long-term GHG reduction targets for Canada.

And so, although we were asked to provide advice on targets for Canada in the original Reference from which this report emanates, there has been – in the time that we have been conducting this work – a commitment by Canada regarding both medium- and long-term GHG emission reduction targets.

Assumption #3: Canada has certain unique national circumstances

Most countries can point to national circumstances that have a bearing on their policy response for climate change. Canada is certainly justified in claiming that its own circumstances frame the choices for its own policy framework. The NRTEE has assumed these circumstances as part of its own conclusions and recommendations. These circumstances affect the choice of the most effective, realistic and sensible pathway to achieving deep GHG emission reductions, while ensuring ongoing economic growth and prosperity.

Among the most significant of these are:

the fact that Canada, as a northern nation with a long coastline and continent-sized landmass, will be among the most impacted countries in the world;
the fact that Canada's population will continue to grow during the period reviewed in our analysis, a fact not universal to the Western industrialized economies; and
the fact that Canada will likely continue to be a net energy exporter during the period reviewed in our analysis.

The latter two points imply that Canada's emissions will continue to grow at levels that are likely higher than other industrialized nations, and so abatement effort will work from a higher base. However, a final national circumstance that Canada is fortunate to have should also be considered – that is the fact that we are one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and are therefore better positioned to bear the costs and risks of GHG and air pollutant emission reduction policies.

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